Analysts: EVs will keep gaining US market share in 2024

U.S. EV sales grew significantly in 2023 and will likely continue to do so in the coming year, Bloomberg analysts say in a new report.

Analysts estimate that U.S. EV sales reached 1.6 million units in 2023, up from 1.1 million in 2022. They predict 1.9 million EV sales for 2024, accounting for 13% of the new-car market. Sales could reach 2.1 million with plug-in hybrids factored in.

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That growth should be unaffected by stricter federal tax-credit rules that will exclude more EVs this year, analysts say, but they acknowledge that the upcoming Presidential election will be a wildcard for U.S. EV policy going forward.

2024 Volkswagen ID.4

Tesla, Hyundai, and Kia appear to be the most likely to exploit a growing U.S. EV market, but Volkswagen is “no longer a contender” for the EV crown, analysts say. As early as 2020, VW’s EV targets were looking way out of reach.

And while expected sales growth is significant locally, Bloomberg doesn’t consider the U.S. to be the most important EV market globally, accounting for just 11% of global EV sales. Analysts predict combined global sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids will increase 21% in 2024 to 16.7 million units, with 70% of those vehicles being all-electric.

Bloomberg expects China to continue as the main driver of this growth. EV sales in China went from 6.1 million in 2022 to 8.2 million in 2023, and analysts expect 9.1 million in 2024. Europe, which saw 2.8 million EV sales in 2022 and 3.2 million in 2023, is expected to have softer gains, reaching 3.4 million EV sales in 2024. And some emerging economies could also see big EV gains.

2024 Kia EV6 GT

Despite recent misinformation about EV sales sputtering, they’ve been stronger each month on a nationwide basis—although adoption and gains have become more polarized by state. Cox Automotive estimates 1.2 million U.S. EV sales in 2023, representing 7.6% of the new-car market. That’s up from 5.9% in 2022, by Cox’s estimates. Those at S&P Global Mobility anticipate that the Inflation Recovery Act will more than double U.S. EV sales versus previous forecasts by 2030.

One of the issues in the U.S. has been that while EV sales are growing, so is the gasoline fleet. But globally, as Bloomberg has pointed out, combustion vehicle sales peaked around 2017.