How, where, when, and to what degree electric cars will increase their share of the world’s billion-plus vehicle fleet is a topic of much debate these days.
Combined with autonomy, connectivity, and sharing, the growing electrification of personal vehicles is a major transition for carmakers old and new.
Now, with governments increasingly focused on reducing the carbon footprint of transportation, road vehicles are squarely in regulators’ crosshairs.
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Nowhere did that become more apparent than in China’s early-September announcement that it would set a date after which no sales of new vehicles with combustion engines would be allowed.
With that announcement in mind, we surveyed our Twitter followers to get their sense of where electric cars would take hold most strongly over the next few years.
Bear in mind that the year 2025 is just one model cycle away for an industry with its 2019 and 2020 model-year vehicles already locked down and heading toward production.
Where will EVs have the highest market share in 2025?
— Green Car Reports (@GreenCarReports) November 20, 2017
Indeed, the participants in our Twitter survey chose China as the place where electric cars would “have the highest market share in 2025.”
And they did so in overwhelming numbers.
READ THIS: Is China more important to the future of electric cars than the U.S.? Poll results
Fully seven out of 10 respondents (70 percent) chose China, with a very distant second place going to Europe at just 21 percent.
North America earned a mere 5 percent of the votes, indicating the challenges facing electric vehicles in a land of long travels, large vehicles and lots of trucks, and cheap gasoline.
BYD e6 electric taxi in service in Shenzhen, China
Japan came in dead last, at 4 percent, despite its long experience with hybrid cars, which now make up more than half the new cars sold there.
It’s worth noting that if China does prove to be the place EVs gain most market share—and this is a case where we agree with the participants’ consensus—it remains unclear how it will play out.
CHECK OUT: Is China making U.S. irrelevant to the future of automobiles?
The one certainty is that whatever the rules, and however they may change or be interpreted differently over time, it will be for the benefit of Chinese automakers, perhaps at the expense of all the others.
As always, please note that our Twitter polls are far from scientifically valid, due to small sample size and self-selection by those who choose to participate.
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