Electric-car pioneers vs mainstream buyers: how they differ, in Canada (exclusive)Electric-car pioneers vs mainstream buyers: how they differ, in Canada (exclusive)

2011 Nissan Leaf plugged into an EVgo quick-charging station, Texas
A detailed study of 1,900 new-car buyers has let Canadian researchers contrast the early adopters of electric cars with the more mainstream market in fine detail.
More than 150 of the respondents surveyed  bought a plug-in electric vehicle, offering a sharp contrast in attitudes and adoption preferences.
The findings should remind proponents and advocates that the broader public doesn’t always share their motivations or product preferences.
DON’T MISS: Canadian Plug-in Electric Vehicle Study: 1 Percent To 30 Percent Is The Challenge
For example, interest in the “EV-PV” pairing of plug-ins and photovoltaics appears to be more muted in Canada than in admittedly sunnier California.
Canadian plug-in electric vehicle study
Last year, the Canadian Plug-in Electric Vehicle Study looked at a Simon Fraser University survey of more than 1,750 new car buyers across English-speaking Canada in 2013.
It also included later data from 150 plug-in electric vehicle early adopters within the province of British Columbia in 2014 and 2015.
Crossing the chasm between electric-car pioneers and mainstream market [Simon Fraser University]
Focusing in depth on one dimension of that survey, researchers Jonn Axsen, Suzanne Goldberg and Joseph Bailey have now published How might potential future plug-in electric vehicle buyers differ from current “pioneer” owners? in the journal Transportation Research Part D.
 
The study complements last year’s PlugShare survey, adding input from buyers who did not choose plug-in vehicles, and using standard academic methods to infer respondents’ personality traits.
 
The chasm: early adopters vs early majority
Following the diffusion-of-innovations model of technology adoption, the Canadian researchers divided their study sample into Pioneers (early adopters / visionaries) and Mainstream car buyers.
The mainstream group was then subdivided into Potential Early Mainstream buyers who had indicated a willingness to purchase an electric vehicle (early majority / pragmatists) and the Late Mainstream, who expressed no such interest (late majority / conservatives).
The image above image—with its distinct “chasm” between visionaries and pragmatists—is adapted from the Technology Adoption Life Cycle put forward by Geoffrey Moore in the book Crossing the Chasm.
Moore proposed that technologies struggle to cross the chasm because the factors motivating early adopters rarely motivate the early majority.
2011 Chevrolet Volt plugged into Coulomb Technologies 240V wall charging unit
Shifting to the terminology used in the Canadian Plug-in Electric Vehicle Study, electric-car pioneers can and will pay a premium to be part of a revolutionary advance, and they will accept risks and inconveniences if necessary.
The Potential Early Mainstream buyers, being pragmatists, are risk-averse and prefer evolutionary change. They’re not willing to make those compromises.
PHEV preferences
Participants were asked whether they would choose to purchase a conventional vehicle, a slightly more expensive hybrid version, or more expensive plug-in hybrid and battery electric models.
Individuals could choose among a variety of range options, with the cost of the vehicle increasing with the battery size required to deliver the range specified. Two different scenarios for battery price were also offered.
Despite the study being conducted more than 40 years after Canada went metric, the electric range options for plug-in hybrid vehicles were given in 10-mile increments (16 km = 10 miles).
Pioneer vs mainstream-adopter preferences for electric cars vs plug-in hybrids [Simon Fraser Univ]
Pioneer and Mainstream respondents differed from the outset, with Pioneers slightly favoring all-electric vehicles while the Mainstream overwhelmingly preferred plug-in hybrids.
This is consistent with Mainstream buyers being risk-averse; the presence of a parallel combustion system likely provided comfort.
The number of vehicles in the household was probably another factor. While only 14 percent of British Columbia Pioneers (one in seven) lived in one-car households, fully 43 percent of the province’s Early Majority (three in seven) did.

2011 Nissan Leaf plugged into an EVgo quick-charging station, Texas
That suggests that their chosen vehicle would have to be less specialized, and more suitable for road trips, camping, and other vehicular activities.
Mainstream attitudes should also shift over time, becoming more accepting of battery-electric vehicles as these become known quantities.
If its Model 3 is to succeed, it will be important for Tesla Motors that these attitudes shift, as the company needs Early Majority customers to buy the planned mainstream car in very large numbers.
If only a few percent of the Mainstream demographic remain willing to consider pure battery-electric vehicles, it will be much more difficult for Tesla to sell at the levels it has planned for.
Demographics of pioneer vs mainstream electric-car adopters in BC, Canada [Simon Fraser University]
Pioneers vs mainstream buyers in B.C.
The researchers oversampled Mainstream new car buyers in British Columbia, surveying 538 individuals, to allow for more detailed comparisons with the 157 Pioneers studied in the province.
Some differences between the groups were easily guessed:
Men made up 82 percent of the Pioneer group, and 49 percent reported household incomes above $125,000. Only 36 percent of the Early Mainstream participants were male, and 66 percent had household incomes below $90,000.
When the respondents’ values and paradigms were assessed using a standard social-science protocol, Pioneers were found to have significantly higher technology and environmental orientations relative to the Mainstream.
That is to say, they had a much greater zeal for technology and concern for the environment than did the average car buyer.
Tesla Model 3
Renewables and solar energy
Pioneers also had significantly lower egoist values, meaning they tended to be driven less by self-interest—which may explain the group’s willingness to pay more if it meant they could charge their vehicles with renewable energy.
On average, Pioneers were willing to pay an additional $6.50 per month for green recharging; Mainstream buyers were willing to part with a more modest $1.33 per month.
One implication: if Early Mainstream buyers aren’t as interested in photovoltaics as Pioneers, then sales expectations for solar panels may need to be adjusted accordingly.
It should further be noted that Canadians tend to pay less for electricity (but more for gasoline) than their U.S. neighbors, and that Canada’s grid overall already has a majority of renewable sources. Hydroelectricity provides about 60 percent of the country’s electricity today.
Both of those factors could also undercut the motivation of Early Majority car buyers to install photovoltaic solar panels.
Photovoltaic solar power field at Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee
For these reasons and others, including general weather conditions, solar-panel uptake among Canada’s plug-in electric vehicle buyers could be lower than would be expected using American trends.
Looking forward
As detailed as such a snapshot may be, it still only captures a moment in time.
Fortunately, the Simon Fraser University research team plans to repeat their survey at regular intervals to create a so-called longitudinal study.
That will allow us to track evolving attitudes, especially among Mainstream car buyers, and how they change over time.
Armed with these insights, electric-vehicle advocates will be better-equipped in the long-term effort to push internal-combustion engines into the rear-view mirror of history.
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